Natural Refuges in Panama Could Protect Frogs

New research from the Smithsonian Institution has identified potential climate refuges in Panama where frog species could survive a disease that has devastated their populations for decades.

This finding creates new possibilities for reintroducing captive-bred amphibians into natural environments where conditions are less favorable for the growth of the fungus.

Scientists from the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute (STRI) and the Smithsonian’s National Zoo and Conservation Biology Institute published the study in the journal Journal for Nature Conservation. Researchers used climate models and disease distribution maps to locate areas with the highest likelihood of survival.

The primary threat is chytridiomycosis, a disease caused by the fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, which began spreading across Central and South America in the 1970s.

Its spread has led to the disappearance of numerous amphibian populations, particularly those belonging to the genus Atelopus, known as harlequin toads.

Among the affected amphibians is the Panamanian golden frog (Atelopus zeteki)—an ecological and cultural symbol of the country—which has not been recorded in the wild for over 15 years.

Its survival currently depends on specialized breeding and conservation programs, developed to prevent its total extinction.

The challenge for scientists is that the fungus remains present throughout much of these species’ former habitats. Attempts to return individuals raised under human care to the wild have resulted in significant losses due to infections, even after years of breeding and preparation.

Brian Gratwicke, a conservation biologist at the Smithsonian and one of the study’s authors, explained that identifying climates where the fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis is not present will allow for better selection of release sites.

The tool aims to reduce the losses observed in previous efforts, where reintroduced animals were exposed to a pathogen that persists in the environment.

The researchers determined that the intensity of the disease fluctuates based on temperature, humidity, and the seasons—much like the seasonal variations seen in certain human infections.

Based on these patterns, they created maps that help identify areas that are less suitable for the fungus.