Which U.S. President Would Be Best for Panama?
They say everyone votes in their own self interest. With the U.S. presidential election in it’s final weeks and the global financial crunch hitting hard, it leaves an expat like me here in Panama wondering, “which guy would be better for Panama’s future?”
PREFACE: I’m not taking sides here folks, I’m just posing some hypothetical.
Let’s ponder the potential outcomes, shall we?
1. McCain Wins & Things Go Well
Somehow the old rascal and young babe from Alaska squeak past the mass media’s coronation of “the chosen one”. Somehow, the 49% (or if like Gore, 50.9%) of disappointed voters go along merrily with the electoral college’s decision. True to promises made while riding “the straight talk express”, McCain maintains low capital gains tax, reduces & reforms government and SHAZAM!…the U.S. economy comes roaring back.
- Panama Bull - Confident investors buy 2nd homes in Panama, Panama Canal and other mega projects continue as planned
- Panama Travel Growth - Market-rich gringos travel to Panama and stay in fancy hotels
2. McCain Wins & Things Go Badly
Certainly a big chunk of the global community would sleep easier with Obama taking the reins. Whether we like it or not, feelings play a large role in the global economy. Many consider McCain to be even more of a war hawk than Bush, so in addition to stock market worries, “Bush 2.0″ could lead to Russia’s increased “interest” in Latin America, Chavez’s continued cozying up to Iran and any other odd number of not-so-rosy chain reactions.
- Iran-Contra…Again? - Venezuela, Russia and Iran all meddle with Panama’s capitalist oasis
- Panama Bubble Bursts - The U.S. economy slides deeper, Panama’s housing boom stops dead
3. Obama Wins & Things Go Well
The Big “O” swoons the masses, young voters flock to the polls in record numbers and America votes for change. Europe (along with Russia, Iran, Pakistan, etc.) breathe a collective sigh of relief and real negotiations resume rather than the return of Cold War buildups. Wall Street gets the willies initially, however, gets over it. The suites wax nostalgic for the golden Clinton years and the economy does just fine despite fears that Democrats hate rich people. Obama does raise taxes a tad, but somehow nobody seems to mind, corporations (and their profits) stay on U.S. soil and the markets stabilize.
- Anti-Bush Latin Nations Relax - Left-wing controlled Latin nations improve relations with the U.S., Panama’s border security improves
- Global Confidence, Economies Rise - Global economy stays strong, Panama housing and industrial projects benefit
4. Obama Wins & Things Go Badly
Though true believers may disagree, despite audacity of hope, bad things might happen even if Obama does become Commander in Chief. In some cases, the only policy that some foreign leaders respect is force, and Obama seems to prefer negotiation. The ultra-wealthy elite in the U.S. have done, to be humble, quite well under the Bush administration. Obama’s policies would seek to level the playing field between the rich and poor. Barack’s diplomacy and tax re-distribution policies could go terribly wrong. The results may have negative effects on the U.S. economic and political dominance, but hey…maybe that’s the point? In a worst-case scenario that could mean bad news for Panama.
- Region Destabilized? - Russia, China, Iran, Venezuela or any combination thereof see an opportunity to regain strength in Latin America while the U.S. chooses State Department solutions over The Pentagon’s. 1980 all over again?
- Panama Offshore Accounts Boom - U.S. wealth may seek to flee Panama, resulting in more investment in Panama banks, real estate and other offshore assets. Bad for the U.S., but maybe good for some sectors in Panama.
It certainly is fun, but invariably, impossible to foresee all the implications of what either a McCain or Obama administration means for Panama long-term, but it sure makes for good blog fodder.
So who knows which candidate really represents the best choice for Panama? I guess that’s not really important, given that Panamanians don’t get a vote. We gringos in Panama will be in a similar situation in a few months when Panama elects a new president…but that’s a different article.
