The New Panama Red
(pimpinturtle.com) Last Friday, Dec. 5, the Russian Navy sailed a warship into the Panama Canal--the first time since World War II. This week Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice flies to Panama to reinforce U.S. interests in the Zone.
Although it sounds like a reversion to Cold War intrigue that would make you want to load up on swords, your better bet might be plowshares.
The free trade spirit permeates Panama. It operates the world's second-largest free trade zone after Hong Kong. Its overall economic growth rate matches that of China. Panama has posted 23 consecutive quarters of economic growth, growing gross domestic product by 11.5% in 2007. This is double the pace of the rest of Latin America and well ahead of the U.S.
Three things explain a continuing positive outlook for Panama.
First, the Panamanian construction sector is in hyper-growth mode. U.S. retirees are attracted there by the lower cost of living, a dollarized economy, English-speaking people and proximity to the states. Several high-profile real estate projects like the Trump Ocean Club are also drawing upscale jet-set buyer attention. Panama City is only a three-hour flight from Miami and has all the signs of a boom town, including building cranes on the skyline and traffic congestion.
Second, the canal widening construction project is boosting the Panamanian economy. This is the largest infrastructure project in Latin America with a price tag of $5.2 billion. This week, five major multinational agencies are expected to agree on a $2.3 billion, 20-year long-term financing. The project is already pumping money into the local service-based economy, which should easily reach the 7%-8% International Monetary Fund growth projections for next year,
Third, the economy of the Colon Free Trade Zone represents almost 8% of the entire Panamanian economy and another potential contributor to growth. Last year, trade between the U.S. and Panama amounted to $4 billion in goods. If the U.S. ratifies the U.S.-Panama Free Trade Agreement, tariffs on 80% of the industrial and consumer goods imported from the U.S. should be eliminated. Lower tariffs will make it easier for U.S. companies like Caterpillar (nyse: CAT - news - people ) to compete for much-needed earth-moving equipment sales.
This once-in-a-lifetime scenario is great for Panamanians, but poses risks for parts of the U.S. transportation industry.
With a wider canal, larger ships can go directly from Asia to the East Coast without unloading cargo. This is not a small impact. Eighty percent of Asian goods shipped in containers to the U.S. today come into the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach. The new canal will draw traffic away from both the West Coast and Texas ports.
Hopefully, the new administration and Congress will move forward on free trade with Panama so the business of the Canal Zone and Panama does not go elsewhere--a real vulnerability for the U.S.
